July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000, far below the market's expectation of a 150,000 gain, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.5%. In the past, this kind of soft data would have been music to crypto's ears—weak jobs numbers, rising rate-cut expectations, risk assets rallying across the board. And on Friday, U.S. stocks followed that exact script: the S&P 500 rose 0.6% to a new all-time high, the Nasdaq jumped 1.3%, and the Dow gained 0.3%, capping off the S&P's best weekly performance in nearly four months at +3.6%, with the Nasdaq up 5.2% for the week.
Bitcoin, however, completely missed the memo. It's currently trading at $64,958, having spent the past 24 hours stuck in a tight range between $64,700 and $65,500—a swing of just 1.1%—with a 24-hour change of merely -0.02%. Calling it "sideways" would almost be too generous. Ethereum is holding above the $1,900 mark, currently at $1,911, down a slight 0.32%. Neither coin has managed to reclaim its 14-day high from July 27—$65,438 for Bitcoin and $1,966 for Ethereum—nor are they far from the early-August wick lows of $62,456 and $1,835.
Among altcoins, SOL is one of the few showing any signs of life, trading at $76.54, up 0.68%, and even touching a 14-day high of $77.31 earlier today. XRP, meanwhile, slipped 0.84% to $1.031, hovering right near its 14-day low of $1.015 set on August 8. Overall, the market lacks a clear catalyst, and most coins are treading water.
Where things actually got exciting was in the liquidation data. Over the past 24 hours, total futures liquidations across the market hit $171 million, with short positions accounting for $115 million—roughly 67% of the total—while long liquidations came in at just $56.24 million. In other words, after this cold-shower payrolls report, it was the shorts who took the bigger beating, not the longs. A total of 57,063 traders were liquidated, with the single largest liquidation occurring on a TUTUSDT perpetual contract on Bitget, worth $3.32 million. The Fear & Greed Index slipped further to 30, down 1 point from the previous day's 31, having stayed stuck between 25 and 31 for the past eight days (Aug 3–10)—unable to break out of "Fear" territory.
On the technical front, Bitcoin closed at $64,902, with a 14-day RSI of 54.2, sitting in neutral territory. Price is holding above both the SMA20 ($64,440) and SMA50 ($63,374), but remains below the SMA200 at $70,172. The MACD remains in bullish alignment, with momentum widening from the previous day. Resistance levels line up at the upper Bollinger Band ($66,301), the 30-day high ($66,956), and the SMA200 ($70,172), while support sits at the SMA20, SMA50, and the lower Bollinger Band ($62,579). Ethereum closed at $1,911, with a 14-day RSI of 55.5, also trading above its SMA20 ($1,898) and SMA50 ($1,804), but below its SMA200 of $2,051. The MACD shows a bearish alignment with converging momentum. Resistance sits at the upper Bollinger Band ($1,955), the 30-day high ($1,981), and the SMA200 ($2,051), while support levels are the SMA20, the lower Bollinger Band ($1,841), and the SMA50.
The next variable that could break this decoupling could be the CPI data set to be released on August 12.
